“The imminent break-up of the West will accelerate
the shift of economic and political power to the East.”
— Peter Koenig
By Peter Koenig
September 28, 2021
This article has been slightly abridged
A shift in the world’s power base, alliances and economic strength will undoubtedly happen within the coming years. In fact, it’s already ongoing.
The Saker, in his blog (26 September 2021) has covered most of the geopolitical transformations that are likely taking place in the foreseeable future.
Consider that the SCO – the Shanghai Cooperation Organization – has just integrated Iran as a new member.
This little-talked-about organization, the SCO, is an association of eastern countries created by China and Russia on 15 June 2001. It started out with six Central and East-Asian members: Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
Since then India and Pakistan have joined the club; to which Iran, as already mentioned, is also a recent new member.
LD: The map above is slightly out of date in its colour code, but it’s the best I can find. At least it shows where the various countries in the region are located.
This powerful alliance of Eastern countries, in terms of economic strength and a huge population base, has now emerged as a serious geopolitical threat to NATO and the Western Alliance headed by the United States.
Europe stands midway between East and West geographically but is heavily dependent on Russia for natural gas imports and on China for basic manufacturing goods; so Europe could break up any day now and NATO collapse in ruins. Germany could certainly forge closer ties with Russia, as in the past; and Macron has already indicated that France could soon be ditching NATO for reasons explained below.)
Associated members of SCO are Malaysia and Mongolia. Which makes the SCO one of the most powerful, possibly THE most powerful, socioeconomic and defense strategy organization in the world – with more than half the world’s population and about one third of the world’s GDP.
One could undoubtedly ask, what does India have to do in this club?
India is swinging from West to East to West, where ever the crumbs of fortune seem to be larger. Recent photographs of India’s PM Narendra Modi with President Biden, together smiling to the media – speaks for itself.
Well, for sure, there are macro-strategic reasons for keeping Modi’s India in the SCO-Association. The day will come when India will be India again – not just expressed by the will of the people, but also by her leaders.
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As well illustrated in The Saker’s essay, the west is destined to break apart and eventually collapse.
It’s reminiscent of the picture of a falling airplane, where the passengers are arguing and thrashing out on each other, while the rapidly descending plane is breaking apart – and soon hitting the ground. And probably goes up in smoke. It’s most likely not going to be that dramatic – but perhaps close.
Indeed, Europe cannot decide whether they belong to the western Anglo-American block that has also captured Australia and New Zealand – or to the much more stable, and much more peaceful and congenial mega-continent – Eurasia.
Just a couple of figures to dwell on: this is an area of 55,000,000 km. (or 21,000,000 square miles), and a population of 5.4 billion as of October 2019 – about two thirds of the world population.
It’s actually a no-brainer.
We will soon see whether Europe, the European Union, eventually will fall apart for not knowing where to belong, or make a last-minute right decision. It’s a pity that the “system” ruling the World Order in the West does not see they are betting on a paper tiger – like NATO – to come to its rescue.
Let’s look at AUKUS now.
AUKUS stands for Australia, UK and the US in a new strategic alliance. It aims at modernizing the primary beneficiary – Australia – over the coming decades to take up security challenges in the Indo-Pacific [clear speak: Take up offensive positions against China and Russia].
The plan is to give access to cutting edge military technology to Australia by its two partners, including futuristic capabilities like artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. This refers to the recent deal of US/UK built nuclear submarines, canceling the submarine contract Australia had with France.
This, AUKUS deal for unprepared France, annihilated a US$ 66 billion equivalent Australian contract with French majority state-owned Naval Group to provide 12 conventional diesel-electric submarines for Australia.
And imagine, this is just one of the first “deals” of the rather new AUKUS alliance. What may follow, are more such self-centered, immediate-profit-oriented deals that help further breaking apart the once-upon-a-time so powerful western alliance.
The new AUKUS deal will provide Australia with nuclear powered submarines. But the agreement is so new, neither cost nor time frame are so far public knowledge.
France withdrew its ambassadors to the United States and Australia after U.S. President Joe Biden revealed last week a new tripartite alliance including Australia and Britain that would allow Australia to amass a fleet of at least eight nuclear-powered submarines.
Russia Today (RT) sums it up:
It is no surprise, then, that the newly forged Atlantic-Pacific triple alliance between the US, Great Britain, and Australia, known as AUKUS, has caught the eye of Russian leaders and defense chiefs. Announced on 15 September, the pact was presented as targeting China. However, it’s clear its geopolitical implications won’t be felt in Beijing alone.
The New AUKUS nuclear bloc won’t just battle China, it will take the West into confrontation with Russia too, Moscow’s security chief says.
Initially cautious, Moscow’s response has quickly become more critical. Nikolai Patrushev, secretary of Russia’s National Security Council, has denounced AUKUS as the “prototype of an Asian NATO,” set to expand, and directed against both China and Russia.
The essence of AUKUS is not complicated. While it covers various areas, such as cyber and artificial intelligence, its core is the transfer of technology from the USA to Australia.
And not just any technology, but that of nuclear-powered submarines, which, until now, have been in the possession of only six states: China, France, Great Britain, Russia, the USA, and – in a complicated manner dependent on Russia – India. And of course, never to be mentioned: Israel.
In conclusion – Moscow may, accordingly, expand its own nuclear submarine fleet in the Pacific. In such a world, the already existing strategic partnership between China and Russia would only get stronger.
In parallel to this AUKUS treason on France, Biden is hosting a Quad summit (Quad Alliance = Quadrilateral Security Dialogue is a strategic dialogue between the United States, India, Japan and Australia). While the topic is not official news yet, it’s not difficult to guess that the subject is how to “contain” – speak “aggress” Russia and China. And again, strangely, prominent SCO member India plays along.
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There is the economic impact such a deal may have, not only in figures of hard money, but also as a precedent. No rules are respected. This is the “free market” of the New Brave World, under which not even traditional allies are respected and secure.
It is difficult to predict how France under Macron will act in response. Macron is certainly no De Gaulle. President Macron —or his aides—have insinuated that in response to the abrogation of the Aussie-French nuclear submarine deal, France may exit NATO. We can easily speculate, that’s what De Gaulle would have done. That would be something to be proud of for France and, in the long run for Europe too. But it is unlikely to happen. Macron is “guided” by darker forces, emanating from the financial establishment.
This socioeconomic and political break-up of the so-called western alliance, will certainly hurt a lot of people, but the world, Mother Earth, will survive, and most of those who have not betrayed their beliefs may too.
It is unfathomable what the onset of covid has destroyed in terms of socioeconomic wealth and, simply, wellbeing.
People in the Global South, about whom hardly any wester politician speaks, are dying, from hunger, despair, disease – and merely from desperation.
According to the World Food Program, close to a billion people are already suffering from famine or are at the verge of seriously suffering from food scarcity.
The imminent break-up of the west will accelerate the shift of economic and political power to the East.
Europe has not much time to decide whether they belong to the Future—to the East—or to the defunct and decaying Past in the West.
Western people need to wake up and take back their governments, now abducted by dark invisible forces. Yes, it’s possible. We can do it.